Trade Relations
Dail Éireann — 2025-12-09
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Simon Harris (FG), Wicklow

I thank Deputy McCormack very much for his kind words. I look forward to working with him. I also very much welcome this question because while I look at it from the Department of Finance perspective now, previously in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade I engaged significantly on trade and tariffs at an EU level. It is so important we continue to, as he rightly says, monitor the impact all these issues have or could have on the Irish and European economies were there to be further changes.
I very much welcome that the EU and the US have reached a deal on reciprocal trade. This provides much-needed certainty, or at least more certainty, to exporters. That said, tariffs continue to represent a clear headwind to domestic activity, particularly given the highly globalised nature of our economy. Updated analysis on the impact of tariffs on the economy was conducted by my Department and the ESRI. It was published alongside budget 2026 to reflect the current global tariff landscape. In this analysis, the introduction of tariffs is estimated to reduce our modified domestic demand by around 1.25% over the medium term when compared with a scenario with no tariffs, so it is having an impact. This represents a moderation in growth rather than a decline in economic activity.
It is difficult at this stage to make a definitive assessment of the impact tariff changes are currently having on the Irish economy. In the first three quarters of the year GDP recorded double-digit growth on an annual basis. Front-loading of pharmaceutical exports to the US in anticipation of tariffs played a key role in driving headline activity in the opening months of the year. The continued strength of GDP in recent quarters suggests structural factors may also be at work, including significant underlying demand for a limited range of subcategories of pharmaceutical exports. My Department will continue to monitor developments in economic activity as more data becomes available. It is also important to say that forecast done by my Department was on this idea of a 15% tariff. We need to remember pharma is still at 0% because we have not yet had the outcome of the section 232 process and we need to monitor that very closely as well.
It is evident global trade has become increasingly less conducive to the free and open exchange that characterised recent decades. In responding to the more challenging trading environment, this Government remains committed to ensuring the continued competitiveness and resilience of the Irish economy - controlling what we can control.

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Record URI: https://data.oireachtas.ie/akn/ie/debateRecord/dail/2025-12-09/debate/main
Retrieved: 2026-08-14T04:54:26+00:00
Sitting date: 2025-12-09