Carol Nolan
The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.
| Votes cast | 782 | |
| … spoke in that debate section | 48 | |
| … vote tied to a specific question | 33 | |
| … position stated clearly enough to score | 6 |
The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.
The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.
| Voted with own party | Voted against own party | |
|---|---|---|
| Matched their words | 3 | 0 |
| Contradicted their words | 2 | 1 |
Not scored: 15 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 0 where no clear position was stated in the debate.
Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.
Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party
I will be supporting my constituents in Laois-Offaly and voting no confidence in this Government. I am beholden to no party here, but I serve my constituents to the best of my ability. We tabled a motion in February, leading the way in opposition, calling for an emergency budget. That was shot down. We also called for a number of emergency measures to be put in place. Again, there was no collaboration and that call w…
Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party
I understand but I may not get an opportunity and I am being very brief. These are noteworthy points which my constituents have asked me to raise. I will be as brief as I possibly can be. The overarching point I will make is that life can and should go on. We cannot stop everything, we cannot down tools and we cannot do this to people. There is heightened anxiety among children. Deputy Naughten referred to the point …
Read as support (cue, confidence 0.45) · voted NIL · against their party
I begin by briefly addressing the motion concerning Ireland's opt-in to the proposed EU directive on combating firearms trafficking and other firearms-related offences. I have no difficulty with supporting proportionate, targeted measures that genuinely strengthen our capacity to tackle the illegal trafficking of weapons, particularly those entering the EU from conflict zones or through organised criminal networks. I…
Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.
| Model | Speeches scored | Mean valence | Corpus mean |
|---|---|---|---|
| vader | 644 | +0.237 | +0.423 |
Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.
| Topic | Speeches | Mean valence |
|---|---|---|
| Irish-language contributions (sorted by language, not policy) agus · seo · leis · sin · atá · bhfuil | 6 | -0.338 |
| Party-political exchange (party names dominate) workers · rights · right · sinn · féin · irish | 14 | -0.254 |
| Health scandals, inquiries and bereaved families hospital · families · family · cancer · children · did | 15 | -0.164 |
| War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights international · ireland · ukraine · israel · war · irish | 9 | -0.148 |
| Housing, rent and homelessness housing · homes · local · accommodation · rent · affordable | 21 | +0.009 |
| Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase | 42 | +0.030 |
| Justice, policing and defence garda · defence · justice · violence · criminal · gardaí | 13 | +0.042 |
| Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information | 8 | +0.072 |
| Covid-19 and public health emergency covid · health · public · pandemic · measures · safety | 23 | +0.095 |
| Children, families and young people children · women · young · child · family · families | 16 | +0.164 |
| Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does | 35 | +0.230 |
| Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture | 47 | +0.312 |
| Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community | 5 | +0.434 |
| Health services, HSE and disability health · services · care · service · hse · mental | 33 | +0.464 |
| Employment, welfare schemes and business supports scheme · businesses · payment · sector · employment · insurance | 25 | +0.481 |
| EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries | 8 | +0.516 |
| Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special | 35 | +0.538 |
| Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme | 20 | +0.637 |
| Media, banking and State companies ireland · irish · media · industry · companies · post | 6 | +0.825 |
Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.
| Party | Aligned | 95% CI | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBP | 82.5% | 68–91% | 40 |
| LAB | 78.2% | 69–85% | 101 |
| IND | 76.5% | 72–81% | 327 |
| SF | 75.8% | 69–81% | 198 |
| SD | 71.4% | 58–82% | 49 |
| FG | 69.1% | 62–76% | 162 |
| FF | 67.9% | 60–75% | 165 |
| GP | 56.8% | 41–71% | 37 |
Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.
Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.
| Method | Accuracy | 95% CI | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta | 35.9% | 29–42% | 234 |
| nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta | 11.5% | 8–16% | 234 |
Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.
Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.