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Rhetoric and votes

Catherine Martin

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
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only 2 scorable votes — below the 10 needed for an interval worth printing
100%
voted with their own party's majority · 635 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast637
… spoke in that debate section8
… vote tied to a specific question4
… position stated clearly enough to score2

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 1 0
Contradicted their words 1 0

Not scored: 4 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 0 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Where the words and the vote diverge

Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.

2022-11-30 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Report and Final Stages · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (mover, confidence 0.95) · voted NIL · with their party

Gabhaim buíochas leis na Teachtaí as ucht a gcuid leasuithe. As I set out on Committee Stage, I believe the intention of amendments Nos. 11 and 12 is already provided for in paragraphs (c) and (e) of section 7(3) of the Broadcasting Act, as substituted by section 7 of the Bill. Mar sin, ní mholaim glacadh leis na leasuithe seo. I will not accept amendment No. 13 because an coimisiún will undertake a comprehensive rev…

Full contribution → · The division →

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader737 +0.585 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
Irish-language contributions (sorted by language, not policy) agus · seo · leis · sin · atá · bhfuil 15 -0.113
Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information 107 +0.451
Media, banking and State companies ireland · irish · media · industry · companies · post 10 +0.790
Employment, welfare schemes and business supports scheme · businesses · payment · sector · employment · insurance 12 +0.823
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 71 +0.867
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 7 +0.926

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2022-01-25 · Violence against Women: Statements (Resumed) · z = -3.1 · Children, families and young people
Two weeks ago, Ashling Murphy went out for a run along the canal in Tullamore. It was the start of the new year for the talented musician and much-loved beautiful young woman. She never made it home. Ashling's tragic and horrific death shocked the nation. I wi…

Full contribution →

2022-05-25 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -3.0 · Legislation, courts and legal process
Section 11 of the Bill makes a number of amendments to section 48 of the Broadcasting Act 2009, primarily to extend the complaints process to video-on-demand services. It is important that the complaints system operated by an coimisiún contains some provision …

Full contribution →

2022-05-25 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -3.0
As I said, amendment No. 140 would open up the complaints process to complaints relating to any broadcast made in the State as long as the complainant could group his or her complaint with a complaint made not more than 30 days after a separate broadcast. That…

Full contribution →

2020-02-20 · Nomination of Taoiseach · z = -3.0 · Irish-language contributions (sorted by language, not policy)
Déanaim comhghairdeas leis an gCeann Comhairle agus guím gach rath air sa chúram tábhachtach a bheidh air sa Dáil seo. Tacaím le hainmniú an Teachta Eamon Ryan mar an chéad Taoiseach ón gComhaontú Glas. Is léir dúinn uile gur tharla athrú mór stairiúil sa togh…

Full contribution →

2022-05-26 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -3.0 · Legislation, courts and legal process
To clarify, an coimisiún will not have a role in the investigation or prosecution of individuals for offences specified in the criminal code. That is the role of An Garda Síochána. The role of an coimisiún is to implement a regulatory framework to minimise the…

Full contribution →

2022-05-26 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -2.9 · Legislation, courts and legal process
I thank Senator Ruane for tabling amendments Nos. 145 and 146 regarding the definition of cyberbullying in the Bill. The current definition in section 44, inserting section 139A into the Broadcasting Bill 2009, was arrived at through extensive consultation and…

Full contribution →

2023-07-13 · Arts Council · z = -2.9
As I said, I understand the deep disappointment of those affected by the error. On the errors the Deputy pointed out, the council has put in additional checks. It is seeking to rectify that to ensure there is no recurrence of anything like this. It is putting …

Full contribution →

2022-05-25 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -2.9 · Legislation, courts and legal process
Amendments Nos. 133 and 134 would have the effect of obliging the commission to prepare a report on the operation of the media service rules made under section 46O(5) of the Broadcasting Act, as amended by the Bill, on an annual basis. The requirement for revi…

Full contribution →

2020-10-01 · Maoiniú Chraoltóirí Seirbhíse Poiblí · z = -2.9
Tá m’oifigigh i mbun idirchaidrimh le TG4 maidir leis an iarratas do mhaoiniú bhreise agus tá siad ag lorg tuilleadh faisnéise. Measfar an t-iarratas nuair a fhaightear an fhaisnéis sin. Beidh mé i mbun idirchaidrimh leis an Aire Caiteachais Phoiblí agus Athch…

Full contribution →

2022-11-30 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Report and Final Stages · z = -2.8
As I said previously, this language is in line with the standard of harm or undue offence applied to material by the BAI through its code of programme standards and, therefore, the interpretation of "undue offence" is a matter for the BAI on a case-by-case bas…

Full contribution →

2023-05-18 · Údarás na Gaeltachta · z = -2.8
Mar a dúirt mé, tá sé curtha in iúl ag an údarás go bhfuil fócas na heagraíochta anois ag díriú ar na bealaí gur féidir leis tionchar a imirt ar iompar agus ar chleachtas teanga leis na 8,000 fostaí atá ag obair ina chliantchuideachtaí ar fud na Gaeltachta. Ag…

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2022-01-20 · Ceisteanna Craolacháin · z = -2.7
Leanfaidh mé ar aghaidh mar ní raibh mé críochnaithe. Má tá aon eolas breise ag teastáil ón Teachta, cuirfidh mo Roinn é ar aghaidh chuige. Faoi dhlí an AE, ní féidir oibleagáid infheistíochta a thabhairt isteach bunaithe ar chraobh léirithe faoi leith san Eor…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.