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← Denis O'Donovan

Rhetoric and votes

Denis O'Donovan

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →

Not yet computed for this member.

The alignment pipeline has not produced a score here. That is usually because this member never spoke in a debate section that went to a division with an attributable question — see the coverage table below.

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader65 +0.404 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries 5 -0.558
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 26 +0.440
Local government, roads and regional funding county · cork · discuss · west · road · local 6 +0.476

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2021-06-15 · EU Directives · z = -2.5 · EU and international relations
I know the Minister of State is standing in for the Minister, Deputy McConalogue, but that answer disappoints me. The facts are that tomorrow week, there will be hundreds of trawlers coming up the Liffey by way of protest. The reasons for this are that countri…

Full contribution →

2024-02-08 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.3 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I rise briefly today to raise the issue of the Irish basketball team travelling today and playing the team from Israel. I listened this morning with interest to Mr. Kieran Donaghy, the former great Kerry footballer who, unfortunately, broke our hearts on a few…

Full contribution →

2021-06-15 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.2 · EU and international relations
I wish to raise the issue of the fishing industry in general. Tomorrow week, there will be a major protest during which fishing trawlers from Killybegs, Ros an Mhíl, Castletownbere, Dingle, Kilmore Quay and all around the coastline will come up the Liffey. I a…

Full contribution →

2021-11-02 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.2 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I rise today to ask the Leader, or implore her for assistance with a particular matter. I have a neighbour and constituent who, in May 2021, got a Pfizer first jab for Covid-19. Unfortunately, she had a serious reaction and ended up in the accident and emergen…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.