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← Fintan Warfield

Rhetoric and votes

Fintan Warfield

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
81%
aligned on 21 scorable votes · 95% CI 60–92%
100%
voted with their own party's majority · 353 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast353
… spoke in that debate section159
… vote tied to a specific question46
… position stated clearly enough to score21

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 17 0
Contradicted their words 4 0

Not scored: 113 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 0 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Where the words and the vote diverge

Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.

2023-07-05 · Broadcasting (Restriction of Salaries) Bill 2023: Second Stage · Amendment put: · Carried

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party

I welcome the Minister and I thank the Senator Mullen for bringing forward the Bill. It is mind-boggling stuff. There have been some very confusing narratives. There are issues of the barter account, of agents who wield great influence on our public service broadcaster and the tension in the model between the commercial and public service pillars is very much under the spotlight. It is funny. I have referred to Bob Q…

Full contribution → · The division →

2022-07-14 · Planning and Development, Maritime and Valuation (Amendment) Bill 2022: [Seanad Bill amended by the Dáil] Report and Final Stages (Resumed) · Question put: "That the Bill be received for final consideration." · Carried

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party

I might add it shows disrespect to the Dáil as well, because how many of them were discussed in that Chamber? Forty-eight amendments were put down on six areas, most of which were not discussed in the Dáil. There was also no outside scrutiny or advice in this regard. We are being asked therefore to consider amendments that the Dáil has not considered. It is a complete joke. I support what Senator Boylan said about th…

Full contribution → · The division →

2021-11-16 · Planning and Development (Amendment) (Large-scale Residential Development) Bill 2021: Committee Stage · Question put: · Carried

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party

I move amendment No. 5: In page 4, between lines 35 and 36, to insert the following: “Amendment of section 28 (Ministerial guidelines) of Principal Act 3. Section 28 of the Principal Act (as amended by section 20 of the Planning and Development (Amendment) Act 2018) is amended by the deletion of subsection (1C).”. I welcome the Minister to the House. These two amendments scrap the controversial power the Minister has…

Full contribution → · The division →

2023-11-07 · Electoral (Amendment) (Voting at 16) Bill 2021: Second Stage · Question put: "That the motion, as amended, be agreed to." · Carried

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.82) · voted NIL · with their party

I welcome the Minister of State to the House again today. I also welcome the people in the Public Gallery. They are folks from the NYCI, Wexford Comhairle na nÓg and a comrade of mine, James Stokes, a Sinn Féin candidate in Newbridge in County Kildare, who is 18 years of age and has come to the Seanad to witness this debate. This is a very interesting debate, which we have had many times here in this House. To be hon…

Full contribution → · The division →

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader682 +0.398 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
Justice, policing and defence garda · defence · justice · violence · criminal · gardaí 7 +0.122
War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights international · ireland · ukraine · israel · war · irish 16 +0.209
Housing, rent and homelessness housing · homes · local · accommodation · rent · affordable 77 +0.235
Media, banking and State companies ireland · irish · media · industry · companies · post 14 +0.271
Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase 25 +0.282
Employment, welfare schemes and business supports scheme · businesses · payment · sector · employment · insurance 28 +0.341
Health scandals, inquiries and bereaved families hospital · families · family · cancer · children · did 9 +0.355
Children, families and young people children · women · young · child · family · families 27 +0.362
Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture 15 +0.447
Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information 141 +0.450
Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special 27 +0.467
Party-political exchange (party names dominate) workers · rights · right · sinn · féin · irish 43 +0.550
Health services, HSE and disability health · services · care · service · hse · mental 18 +0.565
Covid-19 and public health emergency covid · health · public · pandemic · measures · safety 14 +0.581
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 60 +0.587
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 24 +0.657
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 36 +0.672
EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries 16 +0.714

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2024-06-19 · National Cancer Services: Motion · z = -2.5 · Health services, HSE and disability
I welcome the Minister of State, Deputy Burke, back to the Seanad. I thank Fine Gael for bringing forward this very important motion. Cancer is the leading cause of death in Ireland. It is a sobering fact that one in two people will develop it in their lives. …

Full contribution →

2022-11-22 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · Housing, rent and homelessness
I apologise that I must leave the Order of Business early. The Government has once again demonstrated that it is unwilling or unable to deal with the housing crisis. This weekend, a Government memo confirmed a housing budget underspend of almost €500 million s…

Full contribution →

2023-05-30 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · Cost of living, tax and budget
The University College Dublin, UCD, students’ union released a report on student accommodation. It not only highlights the housing crisis that students and their families are facing but also the measures that can be taken by the Government in the upcoming budg…

Full contribution →

2024-09-24 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
A total of 57 tonnes of weapons have been transported through Irish airspace on its way to Israel without clearance from the State. What is the Government doing to challenge Israel and its collaborators regarding this illegal use of sovereign airspace? Irish a…

Full contribution →

2023-10-10 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
I also want to raise the situation in Gaza and Israel. The situation has obviously become so dangerous, it is necessary for us to schedule time to discuss the hostilities there. A decisive international intervention is needed to end the hostilities and bring a…

Full contribution →

2024-10-16 · Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) Bill 2022: Committee and Remaining Stages · z = -2.5 · Party-political exchange (party names dominate)
Sinn Féin raised a number of flaws in this legislation in the last term, especially in the hate speech elements, as it proceeded through both Houses of the Oireachtas. These concerns included the definitions of "hate" and "hatred", or lack thereof, and still r…

Full contribution →

2023-11-15 · Vacant and Derelict Buildings: Motion [Private Members] · z = -2.5 · Housing, rent and homelessness
I thought Senator McDowell was going to call for squatters' rights as a means to address the crisis in vacancy and the housing crisis but that would not track with his ideology. I thank the Labour Party Senators and I welcome former Senator, Billy Lawless. He …

Full contribution →

2023-11-29 · Recent Violence in Dublin City Centre: Motion · z = -2.5 · Justice, policing and defence
I join others in extending my thoughts to those who were injured at Parnell Square and wish them a speedy recovery. We send every blessing to them. What happened in the aftermath of these horrific attacks was a disgrace. There were burnt-out cars, buses and a …

Full contribution →

2022-10-27 · Residential Tenancies (Deferment of Termination Dates of Certain Tenancies) Bill 2022: Second Stage · z = -2.5 · Housing, rent and homelessness
Fine Gael gives tax breaks to real estate investment trusts and the biggest landlords in this State yet Members come in here and claim to stand up for small landlords of whom most pay over 50% on rental incomes. So I am not going to listen to either Fine Gael …

Full contribution →

2020-07-17 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · Education and schools
I strongly criticise the decision of the Minister for Education and Skills, Deputy Foley, to delay the issuing of the results of the leaving certificate until 7 September. It was supposed to be mid-August. Students have been left high and dry as the Department…

Full contribution →

2023-01-31 · Work Life Balance and Miscellaneous Provisions Bill 2022: Committee Stage · z = -2.5 · Employment, welfare schemes and business supports
I risk being slightly repetitive. As Women's Aid noted, during the Second Stage debate in the Seanad, the Minister stated the Government is looking at parity of pay for domestic violence leave with sick pay. As my Labour Party colleague just pointed out, the p…

Full contribution →

2021-11-23 · Residential Tenancies (Amendment) (No. 2) Bill 2021: Committee Stage · z = -2.4 · Housing, rent and homelessness
I refer to amendments Nos. 3 and 4. Essentially, they propose that rent increases should be zero. Renters cannot take any more. Senator Sherlock mentioned the darker and more dysfunctional parts of the rental market, but even if a landlord is sticking to the r…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.