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← Lynn Ruane

Rhetoric and votes

Lynn Ruane

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
87%
aligned on 15 scorable votes · 95% CI 62–96%
97%
voted with their own party's majority · 336 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast342
… spoke in that debate section177
… vote tied to a specific question48
… position stated clearly enough to score15

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 13 0
Contradicted their words 2 0

Not scored: 129 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 1 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Where the words and the vote diverge

Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.

2023-02-01 · Road Traffic and Roads Bill 2021: Committee Stage · Amendment put: · Carried

Read as support (mover, confidence 0.95) · voted NIL · with their party

I move amendment No. 40: In page 54, to delete lines 10 and 11. Amendment No. 40 seeks to delete a particular circumstance where An Bord Pleanála could approve works that materially contravene development or local area plans where the works are of "strategic, regional or national importance". We have observed significant restrictions on the authority and power of local government in recent decades and we fear this pr…

Full contribution → · The division →

2026-06-10 · Garda Síochána (Powers) Bill 2026: Committee Stage (Resumed) · Question put: · Carried

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party

I was not here at the beginning of the conversation. I apologise for anything that is repeated. Whatever about the other removals, in relation to section 3, in terms of further cementing what is already a bad law in relation to section 3 stop and search powers, in Ireland, the section 3 stop and search power within the drugs Act is used and abused to profile, harass and have a very low bar for policing. It is not nec…

Full contribution → · The division →

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader966 +0.253 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights international · ireland · ukraine · israel · war · irish 14 -0.183
Health scandals, inquiries and bereaved families hospital · families · family · cancer · children · did 17 -0.159
Justice, policing and defence garda · defence · justice · violence · criminal · gardaí 84 +0.010
Housing, rent and homelessness housing · homes · local · accommodation · rent · affordable 22 +0.071
Covid-19 and public health emergency covid · health · public · pandemic · measures · safety 10 +0.108
Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase 14 +0.188
Party-political exchange (party names dominate) workers · rights · right · sinn · féin · irish 23 +0.203
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 171 +0.212
Media, banking and State companies ireland · irish · media · industry · companies · post 16 +0.301
Children, families and young people children · women · young · child · family · families 60 +0.303
Employment, welfare schemes and business supports scheme · businesses · payment · sector · employment · insurance 23 +0.310
Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information 225 +0.379
Health services, HSE and disability health · services · care · service · hse · mental 21 +0.429
Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special 19 +0.487
EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries 5 +0.564
Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture 9 +0.590
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 7 +0.592
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 21 +0.640

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2022-05-26 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -2.1 · Party-political exchange (party names dominate)
I will look again at my definition between now and Report Stage but the most concerning thing is the word "humiliating" and whether we are combing the two or if there are separate definitions in the Bill. Bullying is an objective test. There is a repeated elem…

Full contribution →

2023-09-28 · Address to Seanad Éireann by An Taoiseach · z = -2.1 · Children, families and young people
I welcome the Taoiseach to the Chamber. Reference was made to the decrease in poverty rates during the pandemic. It is understood that decrease in child poverty rates was linked to the economic measures during the pandemic. According to Central Statistics Offi…

Full contribution →

2026-05-19 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.1 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I am stating the fact that a Congolese man is dead who went into a shop and was accused of shoplifting. That is in all of the media reports. No amount of investigations can ever explain or give any sort of reason that would be acceptable that a man would go in…

Full contribution →

2020-12-18 · Harassment, Harmful Communications and Related Offences Bill 2017: Committee and Remaining Stages · z = -2.1 · Justice, policing and defence
This conversation interests me. I understand the Senator's point about something that is done lawfully causing distress, but there are also situations where someone uses lawful measures as a tool to abuse. On Second Stage, I mentioned two people on whose radar…

Full contribution →

2022-01-19 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.1 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I echo what Senator Hoey said about the health committee meeting. I had to turn off the camera at one stage as I thought I was going to have a panic attack. I thought I had been hurled through time, given everything I have stood for in this Chamber over the la…

Full contribution →

2026-06-24 · Criminal Law, Civil Law and Defence (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2026: Committee Stage · z = -2.1 · Justice, policing and defence
I move amendment No. 1: In page 9, to delete lines 15 to 18. Amendments Nos. 1 to 3, inclusive - are being considered together because they relate to the deletion of all sections of the Bill that provide for the introduction of the use of incapacitant spray, o…

Full contribution →

2020-12-18 · Harassment, Harmful Communications and Related Offences Bill 2017: Committee and Remaining Stages · z = -2.1 · Justice, policing and defence
I move amendment No. 16: In page 5, between lines 12 and 13, to insert the following: “Harassment 5. (1) A person who, without lawful authority or reasonable excuse— (a) intentionally or recklessly— (i) follows, watches, pesters or besets another person, (ii) …

Full contribution →

2020-03-27 · Emergency Measures in the Public Interest (Covid-19) Bill 2020: Committee and Remaining Stages · z = -2.1 · Housing, rent and homelessness
I move amendment No. 10: In page 8, to delete lines 16 to 18. This legislation will allow people who may have been served a notice to quit during the Covid-19 emergency period to remain in their homes for the duration of this public health crisis, which is wel…

Full contribution →

2023-12-12 · Policing, Security and Community Safety Bill 2023: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -2.1 · Justice, policing and defence
I thank the Minister for accepting amendment No. 22. It is a good addition to the Bill, especially given what I said in my contributions regarding facial recognition. It gives me some comfort to know it will be there. On amendment No 25, the Minister knows tha…

Full contribution →

2022-05-26 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -2.1 · Legislation, courts and legal process
I move amendment No. 145: In page 76, to delete lines 19 and 20. I welcome the Minister back to the Chamber. I will speak to amendments Nos. 145 and 146. They both seek to address the inclusion of online content by which a person bullies or humiliates another …

Full contribution →

2024-10-02 · Gambling Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -2.1 · Children, families and young people
According to the press release relating to Health Research Board's study on gambling prevalence: There is a marked correlation between problem gambling and substance use (drug use, alcohol use disorder and/or smoking), with 13% of those with an alcohol use dis…

Full contribution →

2020-12-18 · Harassment, Harmful Communications and Related Offences Bill 2017: Committee and Remaining Stages · z = -2.1 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
Senator Ward was correct in what he said regarding proportionality. I did not have the time to rewrite a section between the Bill being passed in the Dáil on Thursday and being taken in the House today. I will get that little dig in there. As Senator Seery Kea…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.