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← Malcolm Byrne

Rhetoric and votes

Malcolm Byrne

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
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only 9 scorable votes — below the 10 needed for an interval worth printing
100%
voted with their own party's majority · 727 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast728
… spoke in that debate section95
… vote tied to a specific question47
… position stated clearly enough to score9

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 5 0
Contradicted their words 4 0

Not scored: 48 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 1 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Where the words and the vote diverge

Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.

2022-07-11 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Report Stage · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (mover, confidence 0.95) · voted NIL · with their party

I thank the Minister. I hope that we will be able to move through Report and Final Stages a lot more quickly than we moved through Committee Stage as we considered many of these issues in detail during those debates. I put on record our thanks to the Minister and her officials for their engagement not only in this House, but also privately, in seeking to address some of the concerns and suggestions we had. Many of th…

Full contribution → · The division →

2022-05-26 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (mover, confidence 0.95) · voted NIL · with their party

I thank the Minister and her officials again. By the end of today, the Minister will have been in the Chamber for 16 hours dealing with many aspects of this Bill. We agreed not to subject it to a guillotine because of its importance and that we would go through the Bill. I would hope that during today's discussion brevity and concise contributions would help. However, if we debate many issues in depth at this Stage, …

Full contribution → · The division →

2022-05-04 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (mover, confidence 0.95) · voted NIL · with their party

I move amendment No. 54: In page 29, between lines 9 and 10, to insert the following: “Youth Advisory Panel 19A. (1) The Commission shall, within one year of its establishment, establish a Youth Advisory Panel, in accordance with the provisions of this section. (2) The Panel shall advise the Commission on issues of interest to children and young people, on online safety, and on any other matters as the Commission may…

Full contribution → · The division →

2022-04-28 · Online Safety and Media Regulation Bill 2022: Committee Stage (Resumed) · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (mover, confidence 0.95) · voted NIL · with their party

I agree with many of the points made by Senator Higgins. Regarding the Minister’s response, this is at the heart of our democracy. I refer to ensuring that all sides of a political argument get aired. It is important that discussion is based on evidence. As the Minister rightly stated, however, the political landscape has changed enormously, and it is important that a broad range of views is well reflected. Senator H…

Full contribution → · The division →

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader1,064 +0.648 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
Health scandals, inquiries and bereaved families hospital · families · family · cancer · children · did 6 +0.319
Housing, rent and homelessness housing · homes · local · accommodation · rent · affordable 24 +0.494
Justice, policing and defence garda · defence · justice · violence · criminal · gardaí 12 +0.524
War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights international · ireland · ukraine · israel · war · irish 59 +0.547
Local government, roads and regional funding county · cork · discuss · west · road · local 24 +0.552
Covid-19 and public health emergency covid · health · public · pandemic · measures · safety 29 +0.554
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 54 +0.673
Health services, HSE and disability health · services · care · service · hse · mental 23 +0.673
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 283 +0.689
Party-political exchange (party names dominate) workers · rights · right · sinn · féin · irish 15 +0.692
Children, families and young people children · women · young · child · family · families 27 +0.718
Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information 71 +0.753
Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture 26 +0.758
Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase 9 +0.774
Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special 83 +0.807
Media, banking and State companies ireland · irish · media · industry · companies · post 28 +0.810
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 71 +0.814
EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries 87 +0.835
Employment, welfare schemes and business supports scheme · businesses · payment · sector · employment · insurance 18 +0.852

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2025-05-20 · Cabinet Committees · z = -3.5
As the Taoiseach is aware, there is overcrowding in every prison in the State at present. That has consequences for the prisoners but also for the prison officers. While punishment has to be part of the prison experience, it is also essential that we address r…

Full contribution →

2024-04-11 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.5 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
Along with others, I welcome Senator Malachai O'Hara. His commitment to equality and to the reconciliation of people is something that should inspire all of us. It is appropriate to acknowledge his predecessor, former Senator Niall Ó Donnghaile, who did an awf…

Full contribution →

2024-07-09 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.4 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
I am sure the Leader will join me in again expressing our solidarity with the people of Ukraine following the horrific and deliberate targeting by Russia of the main children's hospital in Kyiv overnight. This is part of an appalling ongoing war and it is some…

Full contribution →

2023-03-22 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.4 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I join my colleague, Senator Murphy, in expressing concern around what is happening to our retail workers. Conor McMorrow prepared an excellent package for the "Prime Time" programme last night that showed some horrors, including the physical and verbal attack…

Full contribution →

2024-04-30 · Illegal Dumping · z = -3.4 · Transport, Dublin and rural development
I thank the Minister of State for taking this matter. I acknowledge that the Minister of State, Deputy Ossian Smyth, has been providing a strong lead role, on behalf of the Government, in this area but I am concerned about how long it is taking to put the nece…

Full contribution →

2021-09-29 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.4 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I endorse the remarks of Senator Black around the importance of music and the arts. As she said, it is great that gigs are back and events are starting to happen again. Things have been difficult and we need to support the sector as it reopens. I want to raise…

Full contribution →

2024-02-15 · Climate Change Policy · z = -3.4 · EU and international relations
I thank the Minister of State for his response and I am glad the Government is looking at the potential impact across a range of sectors. As he said, this may not happen this century but there is a real risk of it happening. We are already seeing a lot of stra…

Full contribution →

2023-05-10 · Cybersecurity Policy · z = -3.4 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
Cuirim fáilte roimh an Aire Stáit. This weekend marks the second anniversary of the largest ever cyberattack on a State institution or agency. As far as we know, it is the largest cyberattack ever in the State. The attack in question was, of course, on the HSE…

Full contribution →

2021-11-24 · Cybersecurity Policy · z = -3.4 · Justice, policing and defence
I thank the Minister of State for taking this matter. He will be aware that in May of this year, we had a ransomware attack on our health services. It was the largest known attack on a health service anywhere in the world. For this to happen to any health serv…

Full contribution →

2023-09-27 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.4 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
Before I raise the one matter I wish to raise, I wish to state that I agree with the views expressed by Senator Mullen concerning higher education funding. The issue I wish to raise was reported by Naomi O'Leary in The Irish Times yesterday on questions around…

Full contribution →

2026-02-19 · Flood Relief Schemes · z = -3.4
I commend the fact that the Minister has significantly increased the sums available when it comes to the humanitarian relief under storms. He did reference Storm Claudia, particularly with regard to the impact that had on County Wexford and the humanitarian re…

Full contribution →

2024-07-11 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.3 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
I welcome Senator Nikki Bradley. Your first day in the House is always very special so enjoy it, and get the run of the place, as they say. We look forward to Senator Bradley's contribution for however long the House will continue to sit. We are continually to…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.