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← Mary Seery Kearney

Rhetoric and votes

Mary Seery Kearney

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
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only 8 scorable votes — below the 10 needed for an interval worth printing
100%
voted with their own party's majority · 380 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast380
… spoke in that debate section136
… vote tied to a specific question43
… position stated clearly enough to score8

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 4 0
Contradicted their words 4 0

Not scored: 93 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 1 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Where the words and the vote diverge

Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.

2022-11-29 · Assisted Decision-Making (Capacity) (Amendment) Bill 2022: Report Stage · Amendment put: · Carried

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.90) · voted NIL · with their party

I respectfully disagree with Senator Warfield regarding the rushed nature of this debate. Every week since we began Committee Stage, we have received emails asking when this Bill will be back on the agenda and reminding us of the urgency involved. The most important sections of the 2015 Act were, regrettably, never commenced. There is nothing rushed about the legislation. However, it does contain elements with which …

Full contribution → · The division →

2021-07-09 · Land Development Agency Bill 2021: Second Stage · Question put: · Carried

Read as oppose (cue, confidence 0.90) · voted TA · with their party

What can I say? Much has been said here today, as well as in the Dáil. I have read over the debate on this Bill in the Dáil and I have no doubt that during Committee and Report Stages in this House much will be said to create misinformation, spin and nice little sound bites to be posted on social media about the LDA, which will not do anything to advance real people getting into real houses. The Government is working…

Full contribution → · The division →

2023-03-01 · Work Life Balance and Miscellaneous Provisions Bill 2022: Report Stage (Resumed) and Final Stage · Amendment again put: · Lost

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party

I support the Minister on this point. It is found in other legislation and in general legal terms " in loco parentis " means anyone who is in the position of the parent. It does not just apply to foster carers. It applies to anyone stepping into that position.…

Full contribution → · The division →

2020-10-16 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party

I echo the sentiments and spirit of Senator McGreehan's proposal on the basis that I have had the experience myself, when dining in Kings Inns, of a senior member of the Law Library asking me what school I went to. When I replied, the next comment was, "How very remiss of your parents." I support her views. I have three points to raise with regard to the changing environment and our requirement for compliance. At the…

Full contribution → · The division →

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader722 +0.430 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights international · ireland · ukraine · israel · war · irish 8 -0.330
Justice, policing and defence garda · defence · justice · violence · criminal · gardaí 26 -0.024
Health scandals, inquiries and bereaved families hospital · families · family · cancer · children · did 27 +0.078
Housing, rent and homelessness housing · homes · local · accommodation · rent · affordable 21 +0.255
Children, families and young people children · women · young · child · family · families 90 +0.375
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 26 +0.471
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 234 +0.480
Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information 102 +0.486
Party-political exchange (party names dominate) workers · rights · right · sinn · féin · irish 21 +0.516
Employment, welfare schemes and business supports scheme · businesses · payment · sector · employment · insurance 24 +0.537
Covid-19 and public health emergency covid · health · public · pandemic · measures · safety 17 +0.579
Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase 5 +0.613
Health services, HSE and disability health · services · care · service · hse · mental 33 +0.632
Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special 29 +0.677
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 20 +0.771

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2022-04-07 · Safe Access to Termination of Pregnancy Services Bill 2021: Report and Final Stages · z = -2.6 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I commend the Bill. I welcome the people in the Visitors Gallery and I thank them for all the hard work they have done on this issue. This amendment is fanciful and deliberately tabled to allow access to people within a building and within the proximity of a c…

Full contribution →

2024-01-30 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I wish to be associated with the remarks on John Connor. My sympathies go to his family on the shock and suddenness of his loss which no doubt will be a terrible tragedy to his family and friends and all those who knew him. Over recent days that most elusive o…

Full contribution →

2021-09-22 · Non-Fatal Offences Against the Person (Amendment) (Stalking) Bill 2021: Second Stage · z = -2.5 · Children, families and young people
Senator Keogan's sharing of her story sums up and brings into this Chamber just how invasive and frightening it can be, so I thank her for that. I commend my Fianna Fáil colleagues on bringing forward this important legislation. I commend the bravery of Una Ri…

Full contribution →

2023-02-16 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · Health scandals, inquiries and bereaved families
I will raise two matters. One is very close to the Deputy Leader's heart and relates to the motion she tabled. It concerns the publication of the St. John Ambulance report regarding sexual abuse in that organisation. I pay tribute to Mr. Mick Finnegan who toda…

Full contribution →

2021-05-17 · Situation in Occupied Palestinian Territory and Israel: Statements · z = -2.5 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
I thank the Minister for his statement and for the strength of his position over the weekend. As a Government colleague and a party colleague I wish to express my pride in how he has represented our country and spoken on its behalf on the international stage. …

Full contribution →

2022-09-21 · Assisted Human Reproduction · z = -2.5 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
To say I am not impressed by that response is mild, to be perfectly honest, and with due respect to the Minister of State, who is merely the messenger. That the Departments have a view to developing a policy paper is a wholly inadequate and absolutely unaccept…

Full contribution →

2022-05-18 · Birth Information and Tracing Bill 2022: Committee Stage · z = -2.5 · Legislation, courts and legal process
I disagree with the amendments for the following reasons. In the apology the Minister gave to those affected, in this House, I did speak about the fact that illegality has an implication of criminality and that there needs to be a mechanism for assessment of t…

Full contribution →

2022-09-29 · Equality Issues · z = -2.5 · Children, families and young people
I thank the Minister very much for taking my Commencement matter today. Medical and psychological professionals throughout the world have stated that LGBTI people who experience conversion therapy are almost twice as likely to think about or attempt suicide th…

Full contribution →

2023-11-15 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
We have all had emails this morning about protests this afternoon and there is an unprecedented number of emails regarding Gaza. There is no question that the savagery on all sides there has been horrific since 7 October. I want to raise the point that, throug…

Full contribution →

2024-02-15 · Civil Law (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2022 (Section 4(2)) (Scheme Termination Date) Order 2024: Motion · z = -2.5 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
I completely support the motion. In a way I regret that it is needed. It has certainly been a very long two years and quite horrific. There are invitations in and I have already committed to events on the weekend of 24 February. As of today, how many thousands…

Full contribution →

2023-11-14 · Departmental Schemes · z = -2.5 · Housing, rent and homelessness
I am very grateful to the Cathaoirleach for selecting this Commencement matter. As a member of a Government party, I should be able to be out in the constituency of Dublin South-Central lauding the fact the Government has moved on an apartment and duplex remed…

Full contribution →

2023-05-25 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.5 · Justice, policing and defence
I propose an amendment to the Order of Business, that No. 18 be taken before No. 1. This will be seconded by Senator Dolan. The Non-Fatal Offences against the Person (Amendment) (Spiking) Bill 2023 is being brought forward by the Fine Gael Group. Its purpose i…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.