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← Naoise Ó Muirí

Rhetoric and votes

Naoise Ó Muirí

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
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only 1 scorable vote — below the 10 needed for an interval worth printing
100%
voted with their own party's majority · 411 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast411
… spoke in that debate section9
… vote tied to a specific question5
… position stated clearly enough to score1

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 1 0
Contradicted their words 0 0

Not scored: 4 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 0 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader180 +0.552 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 5 +0.415
Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture 7 +0.434
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 10 +0.472
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 5 +0.876

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2025-10-21 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.9 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
My question is about a growing but unseen issue in our communities, which is online fraud. I will give one example from a constituent this morning. The lady went on booking.com looking to book a holiday apartment. She responded to an ad and entered her contact…

Full contribution →

2026-04-22 · Public Transport · z = -2.8 · Transport, Dublin and rural development
Delivering an efficient and accessible public transport system is essential to the daily lives of working people across Dublin city and to meeting our climate objectives. The case for public transport speaks for itself. Every single full bus takes 80 cars off …

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2025-03-05 · Seachtain na Gaeilge: Ráitis · z = -2.8 · Irish-language contributions (sorted by language, not policy)
Tá sé iontach an Ghaeilge a chloisteáil á labhairt i dTeach Laighean an tseachtain seo. Ach an oiread leis an Teachta a labhair romham, tacaím leis an dátheangachas. Tá sé iontach an dream atá ar bheagán focal nó a gceapann nach bhfuil cumas cuimsitheach acu a…

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2026-03-19 · Ceisteanna ar Pholasaí nó ar Reachtaíocht - Questions on Policy or Legislation · z = -2.6
We had very severe flooding in the basements of apartments in Clongriffin during Storm Chandra some weeks ago. There is a bit of a question over whether the emergency response payment scheme actually works for apartment dwellers. In following up with the Depar…

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2025-12-04 · Irish Language · z = -2.5
Bím breá sásta i gcónaí ardán a thabhairt don Teachta Heneghan. Bíonn sé liom gach uile áit a dtéim. Nach bhfuil sé sin fíor? Gabhaim buíochas leis an Aire. Tá an-fháilte roimh an infheistíocht i dtuaisceart Bhaile Átha Cliath. Tá an institiúid sin thar cionn.…

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2026-01-13 · Public Health (Single-Use Vapes) Bill 2025: Second Stage (Resumed) · z = -2.4 · Children, families and young people
I echo the concerns raised by my colleagues across the House today. The sales of single-use vapes to minors and their use of these vapes have reached epidemic levels in Ireland. The vaping industry has deliberately exploited this reality. The figures are incre…

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2026-07-02 · Ceisteanna ar Pholasaí nó ar Reachtaíocht - Questions on Policy or Legislation · z = -2.4 · Justice, policing and defence
I reject the idea that any report has sat on the shelf and gathered dust. I have had many engagements with the Traveller community in a whole variety of roles, most particularly in the education space. Indeed, it was my party in government that recognised Trav…

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2025-10-15 · Schools Building Projects · z = -2.4
It is a bit frustrating. We are all fully committed to this project and are waiting for officials to make what should be a no-brainer of a decision, given where the project is, what the community is at and where we need to go. I urge the Minister of State to k…

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2025-12-10 · Online Safety: Statements · z = -2.1 · Justice, policing and defence
I welcome this debate. The role that social media and online content play in inciting violence against women cannot be overstated. I had the opportunity to meet the Dublin Rape Crisis Centre last Thursday and I heard first-hand about the central role that digi…

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2025-05-13 · Eating Disorders · z = -2.0
I thank the Minister of State for the update. As she said, it is a complex area. The disease has been misunderstood for years. It affects girls and young women, in particular, in difficult circumstances. We regularly get the opportunity to attend briefings. I …

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The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.