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← Noel O'Donovan

Rhetoric and votes

Noel O'Donovan

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →

Not yet computed for this member.

The alignment pipeline has not produced a score here. That is usually because this member never spoke in a debate section that went to a division with an attributable question — see the coverage table below.

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader67 +0.694 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries 5 +0.388
Local government, roads and regional funding county · cork · discuss · west · road · local 16 +0.702
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 21 +0.719
Justice, policing and defence garda · defence · justice · violence · criminal · gardaí 6 +0.738
Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture 7 +0.815

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2025-05-01 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.6 · Covid-19 and public health emergency
I want to raise the issue of the driver test wait times at present. It has been raised in this Chamber previously. Specifically, in west Cork, the Southern Star did some research recently and the wait time is six months at present. That is absolutely ridiculou…

Full contribution →

2026-03-18 · Criminal Justice (Theft and Fraud Offences) (Amendment) (Work Equipment) Bill 2026: Second Stage · z = -2.7 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
Like other speakers, I commend Senator Murphy on bringing forward this Private Members' Bill. It is very smart legislation. It is very much thinking outside the box. Like other speakers, I would really appeal to the Minister to consider the merits of this legi…

Full contribution →

2026-02-04 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.3 · Local government, roads and regional funding
We debate many topics, from healthcare issues to fishing issues, in this House. It is always matters of policy that we are looking to change. An issue that has come up in west Cork in recent weeks - it arises issue annually - is the condition of our roads. Thi…

Full contribution →

2026-04-15 · Gnó an tSeanaid - Business of Seanad · z = -2.1
I propose that notwithstanding anything in Standing Orders or the order of the House today, the statements on homelessness shall adjourn at 6.30 p.m., if not previously concluded.…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.