Paul Nicholas Gogarty
The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.
| Votes cast | 301 | |
| … spoke in that debate section | 27 | |
| … vote tied to a specific question | 24 | |
| … position stated clearly enough to score | 4 |
The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.
The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.
| Voted with own party | Voted against own party | |
|---|---|---|
| Matched their words | 2 | 0 |
| Contradicted their words | 0 | 2 |
Not scored: 3 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 0 where no clear position was stated in the debate.
Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.
Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · against their party
We are waiting to see whether Deputy Fitzmaurice comes in or whether we can use his time allocated in our slot. My colleague tells me we can use the time. Deputy Lawless got to use some of it and I will use some as well, with the permission of the Acting Chair. This is another chance to talk about the budget overall, although we are looking at the specific measures in the Bill itself. I support the calls by the Irish…
Read as support (cue, confidence 0.75) · voted NIL · against their party
I do not claim to have a great knowledge of this area, especially in terms of how it impacts families along the western seaboard, in particular. I have spoken in support of my colleague Deputy Ward and I want to show solidarity once again. In Leinster, including in Dublin, where there were defective apartments the levels of redress were much higher. There is huge inequality in terms of what families on the western se…
Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.
| Model | Speeches scored | Mean valence | Corpus mean |
|---|---|---|---|
| vader | 320 | +0.303 | +0.423 |
Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.
| Topic | Speeches | Mean valence |
|---|---|---|
| Justice, policing and defence garda · defence · justice · violence · criminal · gardaí | 9 | -0.412 |
| Children, families and young people children · women · young · child · family · families | 10 | +0.082 |
| Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture | 9 | +0.222 |
| Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase | 8 | +0.364 |
| Housing, rent and homelessness housing · homes · local · accommodation · rent · affordable | 7 | +0.391 |
| Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does | 38 | +0.395 |
| Health services, HSE and disability health · services · care · service · hse · mental | 11 | +0.453 |
| Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information | 13 | +0.464 |
| EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries | 11 | +0.564 |
| Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community | 16 | +0.644 |
| Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special | 11 | +0.745 |
Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.
This confidence motion arises because several Opposition parties want to take down the Ceann Comhairle. She is not the issue. The problem is the Government riding roughshod over speaking time and designating the Lowry Independent group as somehow non-Governmen…
Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.
| Party | Aligned | 95% CI | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBP | 82.5% | 68–91% | 40 |
| LAB | 78.2% | 69–85% | 101 |
| IND | 76.5% | 72–81% | 327 |
| SF | 75.8% | 69–81% | 198 |
| SD | 71.4% | 58–82% | 49 |
| FG | 69.1% | 62–76% | 162 |
| FF | 67.9% | 60–75% | 165 |
| GP | 56.8% | 41–71% | 37 |
Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.
Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.
| Method | Accuracy | 95% CI | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta | 35.9% | 29–42% | 234 |
| nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta | 11.5% | 8–16% | 234 |
Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.
Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.