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← Seán Haughey

Rhetoric and votes

Seán Haughey

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →

Not yet computed for this member.

The alignment pipeline has not produced a score here. That is usually because this member never spoke in a debate section that went to a division with an attributable question — see the coverage table below.

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader212 +0.536 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights international · ireland · ukraine · israel · war · irish 33 +0.356
EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries 38 +0.671

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2023-11-28 · Policing, Protests and Public Order: Statements · z = -2.6 · Justice, policing and defence
The appalling knife attack on three innocent children and a care worker in Parnell Square last Thursday shocked and horrified us all. What followed in the hours after that shocked us even further. Far-right activists descended on the city centre to spew out th…

Full contribution →

2021-11-25 · Antisocial Behaviour · z = -2.5
I thank the Minister of State. I am aware that my parliamentary question is a broad one. I would like to narrow it down to antisocial behaviour in the Dublin metropolitan region, DMR, north and specifically on public transport, especially the DART. Gangs on th…

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2022-04-27 · Cabinet Committees · z = -2.5
I want to raise with the Taoiseach the suggestion by the British Government that it is considering introducing legislation that would unilaterally suspend parts of the Northern Ireland protocol. I heard the answer the Taoiseach gave to Deputy Richmond yesterda…

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2022-10-06 · Human Rights · z = -2.5
As the Minister knows, there is serious concern about the circumstances of Mahsa Amini's death in detention, with claims that she was beaten to death. I too believe it is important that an independent investigation into her death be undertaken and I would like…

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2022-02-23 · Legacy Issues in Northern Ireland and Reports of Police Ombudsman of Northern Ireland: Statements · z = -2.5 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
As well all know, on 14 July 2021 the British Government published a command paper outlining plans for legislation providing for a statute of limitations ending criminal investigations and prosecutions in respect of Troubles-related incidents, as well as inque…

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2021-09-29 · Cabinet Committees · z = -2.5
The ancient festival of Hallowe'en has become an excuse for wanton vandalism and lawlessness throughout Dublin and other cities. Every year, Hallowe'en starts earlier and earlier. I am referring to illegal fireworks and bonfires being lit on our public open sp…

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2024-06-12 · Middle East · z = -2.5
Yes. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 37,100 Palestinians have been killed since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas on 7 October. On that day, 1,200 Israelis were killed in the Hamas attacks. Meanwhile the Israeli offensive on Ga…

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2022-10-25 · Taoiseach's Meetings and Engagements · z = -2.4
The world is in a very difficult and dangerous place at this time. There are numerous conflicts taking place, including the war in Ukraine. Climate change is now a reality in many countries. Conflict and climate change together have brought about famines and d…

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2022-04-05 · Taoiseach's Communications · z = -2.4
The atrocities being committed by Russian forces are becoming more visible as each day of the war passes. What has been revealed in Bucha and around Kyiv, following the retreat of Russian troops, is totally shocking. It is clear that innocent civilians were ta…

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2022-03-02 · Departmental Bodies · z = -2.3
I am glad to learn more about the international unit in the Department of the Taoiseach. It is obviously doing important work. As we all will be aware, international affairs are dominated just now by the horrific Russian war on Ukraine. The Taoiseach has engag…

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2023-03-21 · Northern Ireland · z = -2.3
I raise another legacy issue, which is the issue of the Omagh bombing in 1998. Last month, in response to the finding of a High Court judge, Lord Justice Horner, the British Government announced that it intends to establish an independent statutory inquiry int…

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2021-03-24 · Pre-European Council Meeting: Statements · z = -2.2 · EU and international relations
I have said in the House before that Ireland, as a small country, had no choice but to be part of the EU vaccination process. However, it has to be said the Commission's handling of this matter has been less than sure-footed. Its approach from the start was sl…

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The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.