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← Steven Matthews

Rhetoric and votes

Steven Matthews

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
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only 3 scorable votes — below the 10 needed for an interval worth printing
100%
voted with their own party's majority · 1,137 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast1,140
… spoke in that debate section29
… vote tied to a specific question13
… position stated clearly enough to score3

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 1 0
Contradicted their words 2 0

Not scored: 16 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 0 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Where the words and the vote diverge

Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.

2021-07-08 · Affordable Housing Bill 2021 [Seanad]: Committee and Remaining Stages · Question put: · Carried

Read as oppose (cue, confidence 0.90) · voted TA · with their party

First, I thank the Minister for introducing amendments Nos. 9 and 14, which go a good way to meeting the objectives of the amendments Deputy Duffy and I previously submitted. This shows that if parties and Members are willing to work with the Minister to improve this legislation, and they are committed to delivering badly needed housing at scale that is affordable and well-designed, then the Minister is willing to wo…

Full contribution → · The division →

2021-06-30 · Land Development Agency Bill 2021: Report and Final Stages · Question put: · Carried

Read as oppose (cue, confidence 0.90) · voted TA · with their party

I thank Deputy Mattie McGrath for reminding me that An Taisce is a prescribed body in respect of planning regulations. It would be a good move for the Land Development Agency to also become a prescribed body to enable it to be made aware of the submission of planning applications which may border or impact public lands. It is something I will discuss with the Minister and is an aspect which may be introduced under pl…

Full contribution → · The division →

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader215 +0.665 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special 10 +0.565
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 24 +0.627
Housing, rent and homelessness housing · homes · local · accommodation · rent · affordable 8 +0.640
Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture 30 +0.689
Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information 20 +0.690
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 15 +0.828
Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase 7 +0.911
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 12 +0.936

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2021-10-21 · Crime Prevention · z = -3.8
I thank the Minister. I am reassured to know there is such action on fireworks. I was at Crumlin children's hospital late one night and the amount of fireworks going off was an absolute disgrace. I do not know what kind of an idiot sets off fireworks near a ch…

Full contribution →

2022-02-17 · Domestic, Sexual and Gender-based Violence · z = -3.6
I want to ask the Minister if her attention has been drawn to recent media reports of sex for rent cases. I refer particularly to reports by a journalist in the Irish Examiner , Ann Murphy. Are there specific measures or legislation to address this crime, if i…

Full contribution →

2022-12-13 · Confidence in Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Motion · z = -3.5
The housing crisis is the foremost challenge we face. I notice that most of the Opposition Front Bench is missing, including its spokesperson, deputy leader and leader. It is a pity they did not stay for the complete debate.…

Full contribution →

2022-12-13 · Confidence in Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Motion · z = -3.5 · Housing, rent and homelessness
I hope the Leas-Cheann Comhairle will add the time on for the constant interruptions. If the Opposition would care to listen to some of the facts and information, we need to revitalise our town centres and address dereliction and vacancy. The tenure mix will b…

Full contribution →

2022-07-07 · Planning and Development (Amendment) (No. 2) Bill 2022 [Seanad]: Second Stage (Resumed) · z = -3.1
I hope the Minister of State will get a chance to correct some of the statements made during the previous contribution. It is always disappointing to come in here and hear the type of attacks that go on against our environmental non-governmental organisations,…

Full contribution →

2021-11-11 · Environmental Policy · z = -2.8
In the week of COP26, when the nations of the world have come together to address the climate emergency, we should not forget the other emergency, the biodiversity emergency. I would like to ask the Minister about the role of biodiversity officers in local aut…

Full contribution →

2021-07-01 · Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment · z = -2.8
I am also asking the Minister a question on the pandemic unemployment payment where persons are currently in receipt of that payment and are offered short-term temporary work. This is especially the case in the music industry, where a gig may happen and they w…

Full contribution →

2022-11-09 · Water Policy: Statements · z = -2.7 · Climate, agriculture, energy and water
I welcome the opportunity to make statements on water policy. Despite many of the complaints I hear about Irish Water and individual towns and locations, we need to look at this in a broader perspective. We would all have been taught about the hydrological cyc…

Full contribution →

2021-11-23 · Climate Action Plan 2021: Statements · z = -2.3 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
The average age in this House is 50. I checked that earlier today. Most of us will not be around when the real horrors of climate change hit this country, when farmers are having difficulty farming on flooded lands, when sea levels rise in our coastal communit…

Full contribution →

2023-10-03 · School Transport 2023-2024: Statements · z = -2.1 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I have been listening to the debate from my office and we have all experienced many of the complaints and issues raised by Members across the House. One of the issues that really frustrates us as public representatives is the poor communication response we get…

Full contribution →

2021-12-08 · Planning and Development (Amendment) (Large-scale Residential Development) Bill 2021 [Seanad]: Report and Final Stages · z = -2.0
I was probably finished with the Deputy well before I started this speech. I have listened to planners being criticised in council chambers and up and down the country for the decisions that they make. The planners do not plan decisions out of thin air. The pl…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.