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← Séamus McGrath

Rhetoric and votes

Séamus McGrath

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →

Not yet computed for this member.

The alignment pipeline has not produced a score here. That is usually because this member never spoke in a debate section that went to a division with an attributable question — see the coverage table below.

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader132 +0.675 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special 5 +0.614
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 11 +0.624

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2026-02-25 · Ceisteanna ar Pholasaí nó ar Reachtaíocht - Questions on Policy or Legislation · z = -3.5
I raise the local bus service in Cork city and suburbs and the failure of bus Éireann and the National Transport Authority to provide a reliable and dependable service. I should not have to raise this issue on the floor of the Dáil but I am forced to because c…

Full contribution →

2025-04-09 · Ceisteanna ar Pholasaí nó ar Reachtaíocht - Questions on Policy or Legislation · z = -3.5
I want to raise the issue of driving tests and the unacceptable delays in securing an appointment. This issue has been raised numerous times but, unfortunately, it does not seem to be improving. If anything, it is worsening. Someone applying for a driving test…

Full contribution →

2025-04-03 · Tax Collection · z = -3.5
I thank the Minister for that information. I accept 0.6% is a low figure. That suggests the cost to the State would not be significant if there were to be a further reduction in the interest penalty. I acknowledge there was a change in 2021 from 4% to 3%. One …

Full contribution →

2026-06-24 · Ceisteanna ar Pholasaí nó ar Reachtaíocht - Questions on Policy or Legislation · z = -3.4
I raise the offence of spiking. As we know, this is where a drug is administered to somebody, without their consent, in a drink or an injection in a busy night-time scene. It is a gross invasion of an individual and it can result in catastrophic consequences s…

Full contribution →

2025-04-03 · Tax Collection · z = -2.8
I ask the Minister to outline the percentage of households that opted to defer payment of the local property tax in the years 2023, 2034 and 2025 and if he will consider a further reduction in the penalty on the amount that has been deferred.…

Full contribution →

2025-02-18 · Mental Health: Statements · z = -2.2 · Health services, HSE and disability
First, like other speakers, I welcome this discussion so early on in the lifetime of this Government. It signals an intent by the Government to address the issue of mental health once and for all. The Minister of State was a strong advocate in the area of ment…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.