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Rhetoric and votes

Eamon Ryan

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
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only 7 scorable votes — below the 10 needed for an interval worth printing
100%
voted with their own party's majority · 554 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast559
… spoke in that debate section33
… vote tied to a specific question27
… position stated clearly enough to score7

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 3 0
Contradicted their words 4 0

Not scored: 6 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 0 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Where the words and the vote diverge

Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.

2022-06-01 · Circular Economy, Waste Management (Amendment) and Minerals Development (Amendment) Bill 2022: Report and Final Stages · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (mover, confidence 0.95) · voted NIL · with their party

I move amendment No. 12: In page 10, to delete lines 28 to 33 and substitute the following: “(6) (a) For the purposes of the development of the circular economy, the circular economy strategy— (i) shall set out targets, in accordance with paragraph (b ), in respect of each of the following sectors of the economy: (I) construction; (II) agriculture; (III) retail; (IV) packaging; (V) textiles; (VI) electronic equipment…

Full contribution → · The division →

2022-10-26 · Development (Emergency Electricity Generation) Bill 2022: Committee and Remaining Stages · Question put: · Carried

Read as oppose (cue, confidence 0.90) · voted TA · with their party

First, I cannot accept amendment No. 1. I understand the Deputies are concerned that the proposal may appear to be open-ended and as such could be used to approve other developments. To be clear, what I am asking the House to approve is the delivery of up to 450 MW of electricity generation for installation by next winter. That is considered an exceptional case for the purposes of Article 2(4) of the environmental im…

Full contribution → · The division →

2022-09-21 · Road Traffic and Roads Bill 2021: Report and Final Stages · Question put: · Carried

Read as oppose (cue, confidence 0.90) · voted TA · with their party

I thank the Deputy for raising these matters. These amendments relate to provisions we have put into the Bill to give an underpinning to the BusConnects projects. Section 44 provides for the insertion of a new section 51AA into the Roads Act 1993. This new provision in the Roads Act provides for an extension of An Bord Pleanála’s existing powers. The board currently has the power to materially contravene a developmen…

Full contribution → · The division →

2022-02-23 · Merchant Shipping (Investigation of Marine Casualties) (Amendment) Bill 2021: Report and Final Stages · Question put: · Carried

Read as oppose (cue, confidence 0.80) · voted TA · with their party

It is important tonight that we remember all the families of those who died in the Whiddy Island disaster, which I remember, and in every disaster since when people have lost their lives at sea. It is such an acute loss that never fades or goes away. Our thoughts must be centred on those families. We must serve them by ensuring that we learn lessons from disasters and avoid the same terrible fate befalling other fami…

Full contribution → · The division →

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader2,450 +0.627 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
Justice, policing and defence garda · defence · justice · violence · criminal · gardaí 10 -0.150
Party-political exchange (party names dominate) workers · rights · right · sinn · féin · irish 9 +0.427
War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights international · ireland · ukraine · israel · war · irish 12 +0.523
Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information 112 +0.561
Local government, roads and regional funding county · cork · discuss · west · road · local 24 +0.614
Employment, welfare schemes and business supports scheme · businesses · payment · sector · employment · insurance 12 +0.617
Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase 40 +0.655
Covid-19 and public health emergency covid · health · public · pandemic · measures · safety 42 +0.660
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 104 +0.708
Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture 103 +0.711
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 86 +0.741
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 138 +0.754
EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries 35 +0.815
Media, banking and State companies ireland · irish · media · industry · companies · post 6 +0.847

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2021-02-01 · Illegal Dumping · z = -3.7 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
I fully agree with the Senator that this is an issue. I have seen it in my constituency and I am involved in groups that carry out clean-ups of the River Dodder. One of the most frustrating aspects we see upriver is where significant illegal dumping is happeni…

Full contribution →

2020-07-30 · Fire Stations · z = -3.7 · Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse)
I thank the Deputies for raising this important issue. I will clarify that the provision of a fire service in its functional area, including the establishment and maintenance of a fire brigade, the assessment of fire cover needs and the provision of fire stati…

Full contribution →

2021-06-17 · Covid-19 Pandemic Supports · z = -3.7
The Deputy is right and that is a real difficulty but we have done everything to try to support the taxi industry. In the relevant negotiations, the Minister for Social Protection made an exception by allowing people in this industry to have an income while on…

Full contribution →

2023-02-01 · Road Traffic and Roads Bill 2021: Committee Stage · z = -3.7 · Legislation, courts and legal process
These amendments are designed to allow the Revenue Commissioners to issue fixed-charge notices in certain circumstances. To explain the background, in 2002 the system of fixed-charge notices for certain offences relating to traffic and vehicles was introduced.…

Full contribution →

2021-06-29 · Ceisteanna ó Cheannairí - Leaders' Questions · z = -3.6
I can commit to Deputy Connolly that the programme for Government and the Government fully recognise the need for additional refuge spaces and the Government has committed to an action plan on this issue. As the Deputy said, Tusla has responsibility for care a…

Full contribution →

2023-02-01 · Road Traffic and Roads Bill 2021: Committee Stage · z = -3.6 · Justice, policing and defence
I hear the Senator’s passion and clear commitment to the issue. We are absolutely in agreement that the improper use of disabled parking is extremely selfish and causes grave disruption for people with disabilities who need access to those spaces. They are pro…

Full contribution →

2021-07-08 · Ceisteanna ar Reachtaíocht a Gealladh - Questions on Promised Legislation · z = -3.6
It is an issue right around the country. Earlier this year, as well as during the Covid pandemic, the Government agreed incredible planned increases in staff within our hospitals and healthcare systems. Many of those have been delivered but we are still waitin…

Full contribution →

2023-11-16 · Climate Change Negotiations · z = -3.6
COP28, the annual UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties, will take place in Dubai from 30 November to 12 December. Mitigation of and adaptation to the impacts of climate change, climate finance for adaptation and mitigation and loss and damage will be pr…

Full contribution →

2022-03-10 · Ceisteanna ar Reachtaíocht a Gealladh - Questions on Promised Legislation · z = -3.6
The energy crisis and food price rises, as mentioned, are at the centre of this. The Deputy is absolutely right that those on the lowest incomes are most at risk and the percentage of their incomes going on basic essentials, such as food and energy bills, puts…

Full contribution →

2022-06-02 · Ceisteanna ar Pholasaí nó ar Reachtaíocht - Questions on Policy or Legislation · z = -3.5
I will have to come back to the Deputy on that. Everyone, including the Government, is frustrated because this is undermining its intention, which was to be a recognition. It was not meant to be stressful or disappointing. I will contact the Minister for Healt…

Full contribution →

2021-05-25 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.5
They have suffered most in terms in their education and work. They have lost most jobs, and within that, they are the ones who particularly suffer from the lack of a theory test or the delay in getting a driving test. We will put all the resources of the State…

Full contribution →

2024-01-23 · Conflict in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory: Motion · z = -3.5 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
First things first, since the very start of this crisis on 7 October and the response from the Israeli Government and military, the Irish Government has been absolutely clear and adamant and was first up in the European context in calling for a ceasefire and a…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.