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← Garret Ahearn

Rhetoric and votes

Garret Ahearn

Experimental measure. Read the method before quoting a number.
This compares the position a member expressed in a debate with the way they voted in the division that debate produced. It is not a measure of honesty. A member who argues against a Bill and then votes against it scores as aligned; so does one who never departs from a party line they also argue for. Voting against your own stated view under a party whip is ordinary parliamentary behaviour, which is why the whip breakdown below sits next to the headline rather than underneath it. Full method and validation →
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only 6 scorable votes — below the 10 needed for an interval worth printing
100%
voted with their own party's majority · 506 votes

Why the denominator is small

The measure only exists where this member actually spoke in the debate their vote belongs to, and where that vote can be tied to a specific question. Both cuts are steep.

Votes cast506
… spoke in that debate section91
… vote tied to a specific question44
… position stated clearly enough to score6

The third row is the sharpest cut. A committee-stage sitting can hold fifteen divisions while its speeches discuss forty-two numbered amendments, and the record does not say which amendment each division was. Those votes are counted here and deliberately left unscored rather than guessed.

Alignment against the whip

The same scorable votes, split by whether the member went with their party. The top-right cell is the one worth reading: a stated position reversed while following the party line.

Voted with own partyVoted against own party
Matched their words 3 0
Contradicted their words 3 0

Not scored: 47 where the vote could not be tied to a question, 0 where no clear position was stated in the debate.

Where the words and the vote diverge

Every case the pipeline flagged, with the contribution it read and the vote as recorded. Judge them yourself — that is the point of showing them rather than only the rate.

2026-01-20 · Mental Health Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party

I support the Minister of State in how she outlined her concerns. While I agree that there is a stigma attached to it, many organisations, including Shine and SeaChange, have done a lot of good work in trying to break that stigma in mental health. Most of the contributions on this amendment have been about the most vulnerable, and people who are suffering from mental health conditions are vulnerable. When the Ministe…

Full contribution → · The division →

2020-09-25 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · Amendment put: · Lost

Read as support (cue, confidence 0.85) · voted NIL · with their party

I would like to discuss sport. Does the Deputy Leader agree that sport can play a huge part in helping communities and organisations throughout the country to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic in the coming months and years? Does the Deputy Leader agree that the €70 million that was ring-fenced for support for all sports clubs throughout the country during the summer months was very welcome? I note also that the €20 …

Full contribution → · The division →

2026-07-16 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · Question put: "That the Order of Business be agreed to." · Carried

Read as oppose (cue, confidence 0.80) · voted TA · with their party

The Order of Business is No. 1, motion regarding Civil Law (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2022 (Section 9(2)) (Amount of Financial Contribution) Order 2025 (Revocation) Order 2026, to be taken on the conclusion of the Order of Business without debate; No. 2, motion regarding Planning and Development (Exempted Development (Act of 2000)) Regulations 2026, back from committee, to be taken on conclusion of No. 1 without …

Full contribution → · The division →

Tone

Valence runs −1 (negative) to +1 (positive). This is a separate measure from alignment above and says nothing about how anyone voted — "the Minister has been asleep at the wheel" is strongly negative and carries no position on the question.

ModelSpeeches scored Mean valenceCorpus mean
vader691 +0.583 +0.423

Which policies move them

Mean tone by topic, most negative first. Topics come from an LDA model fitted over debate contributions; the terms are the model's, the labels are hand-assigned.

TopicSpeechesMean valence
Legislation, courts and legal process act · legislation · shall · court · person · information 27 +0.239
War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights international · ireland · ukraine · israel · war · irish 13 +0.271
Housing, rent and homelessness housing · homes · local · accommodation · rent · affordable 6 +0.308
Children, families and young people children · women · young · child · family · families 12 +0.362
Health scandals, inquiries and bereaved families hospital · families · family · cancer · children · did 24 +0.376
Cost of living, tax and budget cost · tax · budget · energy · costs · increase 17 +0.543
Transport, Dublin and rural development local · transport · dublin · city · public · community 26 +0.584
Local government, roads and regional funding county · cork · discuss · west · road · local 56 +0.671
Covid-19 and public health emergency covid · health · public · pandemic · measures · safety 36 +0.676
Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content) important · like · good · debate · did · does 269 +0.679
Employment, welfare schemes and business supports scheme · businesses · payment · sector · employment · insurance 47 +0.683
Health services, HSE and disability health · services · care · service · hse · mental 20 +0.735
Climate, agriculture, energy and water water · climate · farmers · energy · food · agriculture 36 +0.739
Education and schools school · education · schools · children · students · special 43 +0.746
Media, banking and State companies ireland · irish · media · industry · companies · post 18 +0.820
Departmental programmes and funding (diffuse) department · national · funding · new · important · programme 23 +0.830
EU and international relations ireland · european · irish · union · europe · countries 24 +0.855

Departures from their own baseline

Contributions whose tone sits more than two standard deviations from this member's own average. Baselines are per member on purpose — an absolute threshold would just rank people by temperament.

2026-01-20 · Mental Health Bill 2024: Committee Stage (Resumed) · z = -3.2 · Children, families and young people
I support the Minister of State in how she outlined her concerns. While I agree that there is a stigma attached to it, many organisations, including Shine and SeaChange, have done a lot of good work in trying to break that stigma in mental health. Most of the …

Full contribution →

2023-05-09 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.1 · War, Ukraine, Israel and human rights
I agree with many of the comments Senator Dooley made. The Cathaoirleach will agree with me in wishing more people had seen the game, as they would have seen that Tipperary should have won it and not thrown it away in the last five minutes. I ask for a debate …

Full contribution →

2021-04-30 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.1 · Health scandals, inquiries and bereaved families
Hyperemesis is a condition that one in ten women suffer from during pregnancy. It is a condition that became quite commonly known from Kate Middleton's pregnancy. It is a condition that women suffer from involving severe nausea and vomiting to the extreme leve…

Full contribution →

2026-06-10 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.1 · Employment, welfare schemes and business supports
That is true. The Senator spoke about Serca Darcy. As public representatives, unfortunately we all know of people who get very sick due to breast cancer or other long-term illnesses, look for supports and do not know where to go. All of us advise people in our…

Full contribution →

2026-06-16 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.1 · Legislation, courts and legal process
The Order of Business is No. 1, Health (Amendment) (Home Support Providers) Bill 2025 – Second Stage, to be taken at 4.45 p.m. and to conclude no later than 6 p.m., with the time allocated to the opening remarks of the Minister not to exceed eight minutes, all…

Full contribution →

2024-03-06 · Private Rental Sector: Motion · z = -3.0 · Housing, rent and homelessness
You would know that there was a poll at the weekend. Every time Sinn Féin slides, the only thing it seems to think it can talk about is housing. Yet, every time they talk about housing after a polling collapse, they make another blunder of some kind. What I he…

Full contribution →

2024-03-06 · Private Rental Sector: Motion · z = -3.0
Through the Chair, I actually welcome the interruption. The Senator said it would be because it would increase the price of housing. I do not agree with her but let us say she is right. Let us take an example of a house in Clonmel that costs €300,000 where som…

Full contribution →

2024-05-21 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -3.0
-----but this is important to say because people on the ground know this. The level of violence that has happened has to be condemned but that will not stop. There is a community and there are neighbours there who are willing to do that and more, if things do …

Full contribution →

2026-02-18 · Address to Seanad Éireann by Members of the European Parliament · z = -3.0 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
When we talk about decision-making, one of the faults of the European Union is the speed of decision-making. I just came back this morning from the World Forum in Berlin where I spoke on defence and security and what allied countries can do to support Ukraine …

Full contribution →

2023-02-15 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.9
This is what people ask me all of the time: how can it be that when the wholesale prices go up, the bills go up straight away, but we are told by Electric Ireland that when wholesale prices come down, and they are now lower than they were before the war, it ca…

Full contribution →

2026-06-17 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.9 · Legislation, courts and legal process
The Order of Business is No. 1, motion regarding the proposed approval by Seanad Éireann of the Data Protection Act 2018, section 60(6) and section 51(3) regulations 2026, to be taken on conclusion of the Order of Business without debate; No. 2, motion regardi…

Full contribution →

2021-10-06 · An tOrd Gnó - Order of Business · z = -2.8 · Procedural and rhetorical filler (low-content)
When one talks about common sense, I ask Members to wait until they hear this one. Funeral directors in Cashel, County Tipperary, received a letter from Tipperary County Council last week, stating that the payment for funerals must be made before the burial ta…

Full contribution →

The whip, across the whole corpus

Alignment by the party a member sat for on the day, with 95% Wilson intervals. This is the test the measure could have failed.

PartyAligned95% CI n
PBP 82.5% 68–91% 40
LAB 78.2% 69–85% 101
IND 76.5% 72–81% 327
SF 75.8% 69–81% 198
SD 71.4% 58–82% 49
FG 69.1% 62–76% 162
FF 67.9% 60–75% 165
GP 56.8% 41–71% 37

Members of government parties align their stated position with their vote 9.4 points less often than Independents — bootstrap 95% CI [+2.7, +16.0], which excludes zero. Opposition parties sit 9.5 points above government too, CI [+3.1, +15.9]. Independents and opposition members are indistinguishable from each other (−0.0 points, CI [−6.3, +6.2]). So the gap does not come from having no party; it comes from being in government, which is what a whip effect should look like. Read this as the measure behaving sensibly, not as a finding about any individual.

How the scorer scores

Two automated methods were built and both failed. What survives is the rule-based layer, which is why the coverage above is narrow.

MethodAccuracy95% CI n
nli-vs-mover-anchor:deberta 35.9% 29–42% 234
nli-vs-mover-anchor:distilroberta 11.5% 8–16% 234

Zero-shot entailment was asked to judge contributions whose true position is known — the member moved the amendment, so the answer is support by construction — and got it right 11.5% of the time, returning "unclear" or "oppose" for nearly everything. A classifier trained on the rule-labelled cases over the corpus embeddings reached 71.1% against a 65.3% majority-class baseline: better than chance, not better enough. Both are excluded from every figure on this page. Only the rule-based cascade, which is exact where it fires and silent where it does not, is used.

Method

Position is read from the member's own contributions in the debate section the division belongs to, by a three-step cascade: an explicit move of the question ("I move amendment No. 5", true by construction); declarative stance phrases ordered so negations are tested first, because "I cannot support" and "I do not oppose" both defeat a naive keyword match; and, where neither fires, a zero-shot entailment model judging the contribution against the question put. Tone uses a separate model and is reported separately. Agreement against hand-labelled cases, with bootstrap intervals, is on the evidence page; no score here should be read without it.